October 31, 2026. Happy Halloween and Happy Breeders' Cup Saturday.  With big races like the Triple Crown and the Breeders Cup, the temptation to try to "pick winners" is strong. We want to be able to say "I had that horse" or better yet be a successful tout for our friends and family who only watch a few races a year. The key to gambling, in this sport and others, is to wager at odds that are better than the true odds.  With a fluctuating odds board and a healthy track takeout of 15-25% the task is difficult.

The inclusion of horses from Europe, Japan and all over North America adds uncertainty to Breeders Cup races that can be advantageous to the gambler. There is more likely to be a disconnect between prices offered and true odds when punters are trying to gauge the relative strength of horses who have raced in different countries against unknown opposition. How strong are the Euros? Is the Japanese contingent strong this year? How do you handicap for a horse like Ask Ikigomi, a 3 year old Japanese colt with three lifetime starts all in Japan who has been off since May 10 and is running in the Breeders Cup Mile? Even his connections don't really know how he fits. 

My focus this year is on three horses who I expect to be undervalued in today's wagering. In the BC Filly and Mare Turf (Race 7), Euro import #12 Blue Bolt (5-2 ML) will be favoured but #7 Bless the Broken (20-1 ML) may be undervalued. She recently switched to turf after 14 starts on the dirt, winning the G2 Ladies Turf and running third in the G1 First Lady at Keeneland earlier this month in a race that was better than it looks on paper. 

In the BC Sprint (Race 8), the money will be on #11 T O  Elvis (ML 7-2), who has not raced since an incredible May performance in the Churchill Downs Stakes, and the H. Allen Jerkens and Woody Stephens victor Englishman (ML 4-5).  Hoping to pick up a piece will be #8 Little Thunder (30-1 ML), who is young, improving and finished an impressive 2nd in the Phoenix to #9 Nakatomi (12-1 ML). Value for Little Thunder might be getting 40-1 when the true odds should be 25-1. 

Finally, in the BC Turf, 6 year old Irish bred mare #10 Tiffany (10-1 ML) takes on a slew of other European, American and one Japanese horse. She won the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup in September despite some racing trouble, flew back to Europe and is back again for this race. The field is tough but Tiffany should be battling to the end. 

Good luck to all, don't bet too much, and enjoy the day of racing!!

WW

Update: Breeders Cup Saturday was a chalky affair, with Filly and Mare Turf victor Kathynmarissa the highest price  ($13.24) and one of only two winners at odds of greater than 7-2. Bless the Broken closed well at 27.27-1 but finished fifth and was never in contention in the F&M Turf. T O Elvis again showed his tremendous finishing ability in winning the BC Sprint while Little Thunder was overmatched, finishing seventh at huge (95.97-1) odds. Tiffany (6.63-1) looked to be well placed in the BC Turf, but was faded late to finish fourth behind winner Benvenuto Cellini.